Every Champions League Club's Chance of Winning Competition Calculated [2024/25]

 



Arne Slot's Liverpool are aiming to secure the prestigious title for the first time since their triumph in the 2018/19 season, while record-holders Real Madrid seek to expand their impressive tally. Meanwhile, Arsenal, under Mikel Arteta's leadership, are also strong contenders. But how do all the remaining teams stack up in their quest for Champions League glory in Munich?

This season marks the dawn of a new chapter in European football, with all three major tournaments—the Champions League, Europa League, and Europa Conference League—adopting a 36-team league format. Now, with the group stage concluded, the competition reaches its decisive knockout play-off round, widely regarded as the most intense phase of the tournament.

To assess each team's likelihood of success, Opta has conducted a comprehensive simulation, running 10,000 scenarios to predict the chances of all 24 remaining teams—ranging from Manchester City to Celtic—progressing through each stage and ultimately lifting the trophy at the end of May 2025.

Real Madrid vs. Manchester City: The Clash of Titans

Eight teams have already secured direct qualification to the Round of 16 after finishing in the top eight of the revamped league stage. These teams include Liverpool, Arsenal, Inter Milan, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, and Lille.

However, eight additional spots are still up for grabs. To determine who advances, two-legged play-off fixtures will be contested, with the winners moving forward to face the pre-qualified teams in the quarter-finals.

One of the most anticipated clashes is an all-French showdown between Stade Brest and Paris Saint-Germain. Additionally, Sporting CP—who stunned Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City with a 4-1 victory in the league phase—will take on Borussia Dortmund. The winner of that tie will then face either Aston Villa or Lille in the next round.

The marquee match-up of the play-offs is undoubtedly Manchester City versus Real Madrid. This high-stakes fixture means one of these European giants will suffer an early elimination, while the victor will go on to battle either Atletico Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen in the Round of 16.

Meanwhile, Celtic are set to challenge Bayern Munich, and either Juventus, managed by Thiago Motta, or PSV Eindhoven will move on to meet either Arsenal or Inter Milan. The winner of Feyenoord vs. AC Milan will also be drawn against one of these elite clubs.

Another compelling contest sees Sporting CP facing Borussia Dortmund, now under the guidance of Niko Kovač. The team that emerges victorious over two legs will then take on either Aston Villa or LOSC Lille, depending on the draw.

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